Ever find yourself trying to understand a situation that seems so intricate, it’s like trying to solve a Rubik’s cube blindfolded? That’s kind of how things are in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) right now. It’s a place where multiple conflicts intertwine, impacting not only the region’s stability, but also the lives of countless individuals. Let’s unpack this together, shall we? Based on letter dated 27 December 2024 from the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of the Congo addressed to the President of the Security Council.

A Region Under Pressure

The sources reveal that persistent violence continues to plague the eastern DRC, significantly affecting both security and the humanitarian situation. The ongoing conflict has also strained regional relations, creating a ripple effect of instability. But why is it so complex? Well, it involves a mix of different armed groups, each with its own agenda and strategies.

Operation Shujaa and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)

One of the key players in this conflict is the Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF. Operation Shujaa, a military effort, has targeted the ADF, and while it has weakened the group, it’s also forced the ADF to expand its operations. This is a bit like squeezing a balloon – it might deflate in one area, but it bulges out in another.

• Actionable Insight: Military operations aimed at armed groups can sometimes have unintended consequences, pushing them into new areas and escalating violence against civilians. This highlights the need for comprehensive strategies that address both military and civilian protection.

The ADF, despite suffering losses, has shown resilience and has, worryingly, increased attacks on civilians. This isn’t just a case of military versus military; it’s a situation where civilians are tragically caught in the crossfire.

• Fact: In June, the ADF recorded its highest civilian death toll, a tragic testament to the conflict’s brutal impact on the population. The expansion of ADF into Ituri and North Kivu provinces means that areas previously considered safe are now vulnerable. The ADF is also using technology, such as satellite communications and explosives attached to drones.

Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) and Mouvement du 23 mars (M23)

Another major concern is the politico-military alliance of AFC and the sanctioned M23. These groups are actively pursuing expansionist goals and attempting to consolidate support from other armed groups in the region. Imagine this as a jigsaw puzzle, where different groups are being pulled into the same picture, often through coercion or mutual gain.

• Fact: The AFC/M23 coalition has gained significant territory in North Kivu, including mineral-rich areas like Walikale, backed by the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF). This has led to clashes with the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) and condemnation by Angola and the Security Council.

A Tug-of-War for Resources

The conflict isn’t just about territory; it’s also about resources. The AFC/M23 have conquered Rubaya, home to the largest coltan mine in the Great Lakes region. They’ve set up a parallel administration controlling everything from mining to trade. It’s a stark reminder that resources can fuel conflict, and that control over these resources is a powerful motivator.

• Fact: At least 150 tons of coltan were fraudulently exported to Rwanda, mixed with local production, resulting in the largest contamination of mineral supply chains in the region. This illegal activity shows how conflict and trade can be entangled, with significant economic and ethical implications.

The Complex Web of Alliances

The picture gets even more complicated when you see how alliances are formed and broken. For instance, the DRC government has relied on Wazalendo groups and even the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), as proxies in the fight against AFC/M23 and RDF. It’s like watching a game of chess where the pieces keep changing sides.

• Fact: The FARDC’s limited offensive against the FDLR didn’t achieve its objectives, instead exposing the discord within the FARDC command. This also highlights the limitations of military action when underlying issues aren’t addressed.

The Ceasefire That Wasn’t

A ceasefire agreement was reached between the DRC and Rwanda, but it failed to prevent the AFC/M23 from gaining more territory with the support of RDF. It’s a good reminder that agreements on paper don’t always translate to peace on the ground, and that sometimes, ceasefires can be used as opportunities to strengthen positions and restock.

• Actionable Insight: Ceasefires are crucial, but they must be accompanied by clear mechanisms for implementation and verification. The lack of a comprehensive plan and mutual distrust between the parties have hindered progress towards peace.

Advanced Military Tech and External Support

The conflict isn’t just about manpower; technology plays a crucial role. The M23 and RDF use advanced military equipment, including 122mm rockets and guided missiles, and operate jamming systems, showing new evidence of external support and violations of the arms embargo. This technological advantage is a major factor in the M23’s military dominance, and demonstrates how modern technology can escalate conflicts.

• Fact: The use of 122mm rockets resulted in civilian casualties, underscoring the devastating impact of advanced weaponry in populated areas. The detection of anti-tank missiles and jamming equipment not part of the FARDC arsenal also implicates external support to M23 in violation of the arms embargo.

The Mining Administration in Rubaya

The AFC/M23 established a parallel administration in Rubaya, controlling mining, trade, and transport. They issue permits and collect fees from diggers and traders, illustrating their attempts to establish a state-like structure in the region. It’s a business strategy, but also a way of entrenching power.

• Fact: AFC/M23 doubled the wages of diggers, which convinced them to keep working in Rubaya and ensure the continued extraction of coltan. This highlights the complex economic dynamics at play in the region.

The FDLR Neutralization Plan

There’s been an attempt to neutralize the FDLR, but the plan raises serious human rights concerns. The term “neutralization” could lead to excessive force and extrajudicial actions. It’s a reminder that even well-intentioned plans can have dangerous implications if not carefully executed.

• Actionable Insight: Plans for dealing with armed groups must always prioritize human rights and international humanitarian law. The concept of “neutralization” should not be a blanket term for actions that could lead to the abuse of civilians.

Ituri and the Zaïre/ADCVI Group

In Ituri, another armed group called Zaïre, now known as Auto-défense des communautés victimes de l’Ituri (ADCVI), is gaining power. They’ve increased recruitment and training, and have acquired military equipment. This group, while claiming to be a self-defence force, has been involved in attacks against FARDC, and other groups. It’s a worrying sign when an armed group that presents itself as defensive starts acting aggressively and is expanding.

• Fact: Zaïre/ADCVI launched a significant recruitment drive, mobilizing experienced former Union des patriotes congolais (UPC) leaders and combatants and recruiting from IDP camps. This shows how conflict can perpetuate itself, and how former combatants can be drawn back into violence.

The Uganda Connection

The sources also point to Uganda’s role in the conflict, including the fact that sanctioned individuals like Thomas Lubanga Dyilo and Yves Khawa Panga Mandro have been seen in Kampala. Yves Khawa’s farm in Uganda serves as a transit point for Zaïre combatants, and raises concerns about support for armed groups.

• Actionable Insight: Regional cooperation is vital in addressing the conflict. However, there’s a need for accountability when countries host sanctioned individuals or facilitate the movement of armed groups. This highlights the importance of addressing cross-border support networks.

Gold Production in Ituri

Armed groups control much of the gold production in Ituri. This is an example of how resources are not just a cause of conflict, but a way for armed groups to finance their activities. The illegal exploitation of gold generates significant revenues for these groups, perpetuating the conflict.

• Fact: Zaïre/ADCVI commander Baraka Maki generates approximately $1.6 million monthly from gold production alone, with additional revenues from taxes and fees. These revenues are laundered through real estate and commercial investments, illustrating how armed groups can consolidate their economic and political power.

Security Degradation and the Withdrawal of MONUSCO

The withdrawal of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) has led to a deterioration of security. The reliance on Wazalendo groups to fill the security vacuum has resulted in abuses and a general insecurity. It’s a cautionary tale about the importance of stability and security in transition periods.

• Actionable Insight: A planned and orderly withdrawal of international forces is essential, and requires that there are local structures and local capacities in place to fill the security gap that is left behind.

The Importance of Technology

The use of Starlink internet by ADF and other groups highlights how technology can be a double-edged sword in conflict. While it can enhance communication, it can also support activities and connect the actors to global networks, including ISCAP, a media unit aligned with Da’esh.

• Fact: ADF commanders use laptops, solar batteries, walkie-talkies, and cell phones, and former combatants report that Seka Baluku has access to Starlink. This highlights how technological advancements can complicate efforts to monitor and control armed groups.

Da’esh and the ADF

The increased interest from Da’esh in ADF activities is evident in the increase of claims and propaganda relating to the group’s actions in the DRC. This is a worrying sign and can impact the dynamics of the conflict. The Da’esh editorial expressed ideological justification for ongoing violence in its Central Africa Province.

• Fact: Da’esh reported that between April and June 2024, ADF conducted 82 operations, killing or wounding over 470 individuals. This level of engagement demonstrates how conflicts can intersect and influence each other.

Actionable Insights and Tips

So, what does all this mean for us? While we may not be directly involved in the DRC, the situation there offers some valuable lessons and insights:

• Understanding the Nuances: Conflicts are rarely simple. They are complex webs of interconnected issues, and it is important to look at the different perspectives and understand the intricacies before making assumptions.
• The Importance of Human Rights: Military and security operations must always respect human rights and international humanitarian law. Any military action should be accompanied by appropriate planning and consideration of the needs and rights of the civilian population.
• Transparency and Accountability: There needs to be transparency in regional engagements and accountability for actions that contribute to the conflict. When countries host sanctioned individuals or facilitate the movement of armed groups, this should be a cause for concern and a point of discussion.
• Resource Management: Control over resources should not fuel conflict. Mineral supply chains must be subject to due diligence, verification, and transparency so as to reduce the economic incentives for violence.
• Empowering Local Communities: Sustainable peace is only possible with local ownership and engagement, rather than top-down impositions.
• The Role of Technology: Monitor and evaluate how technology is being used in conflict and how technological advancements can change the dynamics of the conflict.

A Final Thought

The situation in the DRC is a stark reminder of how interconnected our world is and how conflicts can have far-reaching implications. It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by such complex issues, but it is important to be informed, empathetic, and ready to support solutions that prioritize peace and human dignity.

Let’s all commit to staying informed and contributing to a world where such conflicts can be resolved through collaboration and understanding. Remember, even the most tangled knots can be unravelled, one thread at a time.