The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has predicted that the country will experience long El Niño rains during the last quater of 2023. El Niño is a climate pattern that causes warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often leading to changes in weather patterns around the world, including heavy rainfall in some areas and drought in others.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It leads to changes in global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in certain regions. In Kenya, El Niño typically results in heavy and prolonged rains, leading to flooding, infrastructure damage, crop loss, and displacement of communities.

As Kenya braces for the anticipated long El Niño rains projected for October to December 2023, the Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a crucial warning to the nation. The meteorological experts predict an unusual increase in rainfall during this period, emphasizing the necessity of comprehensive preparations to mitigate the potential impacts.

The long El Niño rains can have a devastating impact in Kenya, particularly in deserts and lowlands. However, there are a number of things that individuals, communities, and the government can do to prepare for and mitigate the effects of these rains.

“We have now entered El Niño conditions which, for Eastern Africa, are synonymous with wetter conditions during OND.” – Dr. Guleid Artan, Director, ICPA 

Long El Niño Rains in Kenya: Preparations and Best Practices for Deserts and Lowlands

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has predicted that Kenya will experience long El Niño rains from October to December 2023. El Niño is a climate pattern that causes warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This can lead to changes in weather patterns around the world, including heavy rainfall in some areas and drought in others.

The long El Niño rains can have a devastating impact on Kenya, particularly in deserts and lowlands. However, there are a number of things that individuals, communities, and the government can do to prepare for and mitigate the effects of these rains.

Preparations for the long El Niño rains

• Monitor weather forecasts and warnings. It is important to stay informed about the latest weather conditions and warnings so that you can take appropriate action if necessary.
• Clear drainage systems. Blocked drainage systems can increase the risk of flooding, so it is important to clear them of any debris before the rains begin.
• Reinforce homes and businesses. Homes and businesses in flood-prone areas should be reinforced to make them more resistant to damage.
• Evacuate to safer areas. If you live in an area that is at risk of flooding or other hazards, it is important to have a plan in place to evacuate to a safer location if necessary.

Best practices for deserts and lowlands

In addition to the general preparations listed above, there are a number of specific best practices that people living in deserts and lowlands can follow to prepare for the long El Niño rains:

• Store food and water. Deserts and lowlands are often more vulnerable to food and water shortages during periods of heavy rainfall, so it is important to store enough food and water to last for at least two weeks.
• Protect livestock. Livestock owners should take steps to protect their animals from flooding and other hazards, such as by moving them to higher ground or providing them with shelter.
• Be aware of the risk of landslides and mudslides. Deserts and lowlands are often more prone to landslides and mudslides during heavy rainfall. It is important to be aware of the risks and to take steps to avoid them, such as avoiding areas that are known to be prone to landslides

El Niño induced floods force people out of homes in Nyando area of Kisumu county

Government response

The Kenyan government is also taking steps to prepare for the long El Niño rains. These include:

• Strengthening early warning systems. The government is working to strengthen its early warning systems so that it can provide timely warnings to the public in the event of flooding or other hazards.
• Pre-positioning relief supplies. The government is pre-positioning relief supplies in areas that are at risk of flooding and other hazards in order to ensure that assistance can be provided quickly and efficiently if needed.
• Repairing and upgrading infrastructure. The government is repairing and upgrading damaged infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, to make it more resilient to the effects of flooding.

The recurrence of El Niño and its associated long rains presents a significant challenge for Kenya, especially in regions prone to extreme climate effects like deserts and lowlands. Adequate preparations and the implementation of best practices are crucial to mitigate the impact of heavy rainfall, protect lives, preserve livelihoods, and promote sustainable development in vulnerable areas.

A holistic approach involving early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, sustainable land use, and community engagement, supported by the guidance of Kenya MET and renowned climate activists and organizations, is essential for building a more resilient Kenya in the face of climatic uncertainties.